Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 4 to 8 cents higher this morning. They ended the Monday session with most contracts 2 to 5 cents higher, following 7-8 cent losses in the overnight session. Preliminary open interest jumped 23,060 contracts on Monday’s rally, mostly in the July and September contracts. May futures expire today. After the Monday close, NASS reported the US corn crop was 30% planted as of Sunday, moving only 7% from the prior week and slower than most estimates. That was just half of the same week last year (59%) and 36% below the average pace. The crop was 10% emerged, with the normal pace at 29%. The Export Inspections report indicated that 1.001 MMT of corn was shipped in the week that ended on May 9. That was up 2.45% from the week prior but still 36.59% below the same week in 2018.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are mostly 15 cents per bushel higher this morning after ending Monday with most nearby contracts 5 to 6 3/4 cents lower. Front month May was 4 1/4 cents away from the Dec 2008 low on the continuation chart. Nearby soy meal was down a dime/ton, with soybean oil 15 points lower. May futures expire on Tuesday. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed soybean planting at 9% complete as of May 12, shy of the 14-15% range of estimates. Last year was pegged at 32%, with the 5 year average at 29% for that date. USDA showed 513,375 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week of May 9, with 272,061 MT headed to China. Shipments were down 14.87% from last year and 26.55% below the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management




Wheat futures are 2 to 6 cents higher this morning on broad buying across the grain complex. KC HRW is the stronger of the three markets, with spring wheat lagging. They posted 8 to 12 1/4 cent gains in most winter wheat contracts on Monday, with MPLS 1 to 5 cents higher. Preliminary OI in Chicago SRW was up 2,999 contracts, indicating some net new buying interest. The weekly Export Inspections report showed a robust 842,418 MT of wheat shipped in the week of May 9. That was 56.73% larger wk/wk and 80.40% above the same week last year! USDA showed 42% of the winter wheat crop headed as of Sunday, behind the 54% average. Conditions were rated 64% gd/ex, with 3% moving from good to excellent. That pushed the Brugler500 Index 3 points higher to 369. Spring wheat planters managed to find some dry ground last week with progress moving 23% to 45% complete by Sunday. That was above estimates, yet shy of the average at 67% and last year’s 54%. The crop was shown 10% emerged, well behind the normal pace of 34%.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw $1.45 to $2.70 losses on Monday. Weakness in hogs was an influence, and new Chinese tariffs were also added to beef and chicken. Feeder cattle futures were down $2.55 to $3.725 on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 13 to $135.39 on May 10. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 47 cents at $221.58 with Select boxes $1.43 higher @ $208.89. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 121,000 head for Monday. That was up 2,000 head from the previous week and 4,000 above the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures posted limit losses in the June through August contracts, with nearby May down 20 cents as it converges with cash at expiration. Trade tensions are rising, with China adding tariffs on $60 billion of US goods. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 4 cents from the previous day @ $82.80 on May 9. CME’s initial weekly Fresh Bacon index is at $155.39 for the week of May 10, down $9.37 from the previous week. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $2.08 at $88.24 on Monday afternoon. The national average base hog was $80.64 on Monday, up 71 cents from the previous day. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 461,000 head on Monday. That was 9,000 head below the previous week but 6,000 above the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 45 to 126 points higher this morning after closing limit down on Monday. We have expanded limits of 400 points today. Trade tensions are high as China is planning on raising tariffs on $60 billion of US goods to counter the US hike from last week. However, President Trump continues to hint that a resolution could come quickly. US planting progress was reported at 26% in the Monday afternoon Crop Progress report, vs. the 32% average and 34% last year. The Cotlook A index for May 10 was down 120 points from the previous day to 80.70 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 64.65 cents/lb, down 3.62 cents from last week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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